，中国银行业出大事。

今天，高盛发了一个100多页的中国银行业股票评级报告，工行、农行、交行、兴业、华夏全部降到卖出，中行和招行为持有，建议买入。只剩建行、邮储、宁波银行、平安银行。卖出评级里面，工农中建交5大银行倒下3个。

最可能的意思是：房地产泡沫破灭将拖垮

这些巨头，金融危机将致！

Dachs

Researc

4 July 2023 | 11:21PM HKT

China Financial Services

Testing the ‘Impossible Trinity’ Part Ill: Increasing dividend risk; PSBC up to Buy, ICBC/ABC/Industrial down to Sell

In the third of our Testing the ‘Impossible Trinity’ series, we assess the dividend sustainability of banks in our coverage, based on adjusted book value incorporating the margin risk of local government debt and additional losses in bank credit portfolios (see Parts I and II in the series).

Our analysis suggests that 1) adjusted dividend yields of A/H covered banks will come in at ~4%/6% in 2023E, -2ppt lower than before adjustment, and 2) dividend payout targets could come under increasing pressure, on weaker earnings growth and the need to maintain high CET1 ratio targets. Based on our framework, we see potential for Boom and Hua Xia to miss dividend payout targets in 2023E, Industrial Bank in 2024E, and ICBC and ABC in 2025E (Exhibit 10 Exhibit 11).

Drawing parallels from the 2013-15 cycle, we note that banks struggled to maintain dividends at the beginning of the downcycle then gave up dividend targets in order to prioritize capital and risk buffers when the trinity of dividends, capital and provisions could not be well balanced. We expect banks to face similar challenges in